The rapidly growing electrical and automotive sectors may drive India’s aluminium consumption at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5 per cent over the next four years.
Rating agency Credit Analysis & Research (CARE) forecasts the country’s aluminium consumption will rise from 1.4 million tonnes by 2009-10 to 2.05 million tonnes by 2013-14. Between 2002-10, the white metal consumption rose at a CAGR of 12 per cent from 0.5 million tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes.
The growth will be possible as the global aluminium industry is recovering from the lows of 2009 when the surplus was hovering around 739,000 tonnes due to the cascading impact of the economic slowdown on consumer industries.
Data compiled by the UK-based World Bureau of Metal Statistics indicate global surplus of aluminium plunged to 295,000 tonnes between January-April 2010, from a staggering 905,000 tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.
This means aluminium consumption is rising, says Praveen Singh, senior commodity analyst with broking firm Sharekhan.
Electrical, automotive and construction sectors are the key end-users, accounting for nearly 68 per cent of India’s aluminium production. The electrical sector contributes the highest with 36 per cent, while the automotive and construction sectors share 22 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, an ICRA report said.
The usage pattern for aluminium in these sectors is different in the domestic market when compared to the rest of the world. While globally, automotive and the construction sectors are major drivers, in India the major bulk of demand is accounted by the power transmission sector, followed by the automobile industry.
Aluminium consumption from the automobile and the construction industry is expected to grow by 10 per cent each. Most importantly, replacement of steel and copper by aluminium in the automobile and power transmission sectors, respectively, is likely to support the aluminium demand.
With the expectations of the economy growing at around 8 per cent, demand for the metal from the power transmission segment is also likely to remain healthy at around 7 per cent during the same period.
Being a good conductor of electricity, aluminium has been gradually replacing copper in the power transmission sector. Given the same weight of the metal aluminium is twice as good in electrical conductivity when compared to copper.
Prices of copper hover in the range of $6,500-7,500 per tonne, while that of aluminium is $1,500-2,500 per tonne.
Increased focus of the government in the infrastructure sector is likely to attract major investments in the power-generation and transmission sectors. The increase in the set up of new power transmission lines is likely to grow at a CAGR of about 7 per cent during the next five years, the CARE report said.
The government plans to increase power generation substation capacity of 220 kg to 166,999 Nos by the end of 12th Plan period between 2012-17 from 126,999 Nos in the 11th Plan period between 2007-12. Similarly, number of 400 Kv substations will rise from 94,550 to 144,550 between the 11th and 12th Plan period. This will drive aluminium consumption in India, Singh said.
Domestic commercial vehicle sales is expected to increase at CAGR of 9 per cent while passenger vehicle and two-wheeler sales are expected to rise by 13.5 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively, between 2010 - 2015. The overall demand for the automobile sector is likely to increase at a robust 10 per cent in the next five years.
Apart from the increase in demand, the hardening of environmental and pollution norms are forcing the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to substitute steel by aluminium which helps in reducing the weight of a vehicle.
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